Such findings are difficult to reconcile with the common position that healthy human thought is characterised by a general optimism bias. Other researchers (e.g., see also, ) have also demonstrated that the likelihood of negative events is overestimated relative to neutral events. Vosgerau demonstrated that people overestimate the likelihood of positive and negative outcomes, relative to the likelihood of neutral ones (see for a failure to replicate Vosgerau’s results with positive outcomes). The unequivocality of evidence in favor of unrealistic optimism has, however, recently been questioned. It is against this background that Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman described optimism as “the most significant of the cognitive biases” (p. Applied practitioners within health psychology, for example, have been concerned that if individuals perceive risks as more relevant to the average person than to themselves, individuals will not take appropriate protective behavior against major risks. Since Weinstein’s seminal paper, a huge number of academic papers (e.g., ) and popular psychological books (e.g., ) have expressed this view, ensuring its prevalence not only in social psychology, but also amongst applied practitioners and laypeople (e.g., ). These statements represent the dominant position in the literature. People tend to think they are invulnerable and that bad things will happen to others, not to them.
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